Pallister Wins Second Term; How PC Numbers Have Changed Since 2011

With the return of Premier Brian Pallister to the helm of the province, the progressive left in its various forms fell far short of their hopes on election night in Manitoba, and a realignment is inevitable. 

Since 2011, the Progressive Conservatives have only increased its share of the popular vote by 3.36% to 47.07%, but has distributed votes to almost double the seats held, from 19 to 36. 
The NDP, which ruled the roost that year with 46.16% and 37 seats, have fallen to 31.38 percent of voter support, their seats cut by more than half to 18. Trying to halve that 15 point gap is the next step up the ladder. 

Former Premier Gary Filmon tells about the one that got away

As long as Wab Kinew can only attract 23% or so of voters outside Winnipeg, the NDP will never regain the seat of power. And by 2024, the term "FILMON" will be long put to rest, once and for all, as a dogwhistle to attack conservatives. 

While the Winnipeg Free Press framed the Kinew speech as "Despite election defeat, NDP does victory lap", the victory was over the other left wing opposition parties. The Tories were barely dented by Kinew, with none of the Winnipeg seats grabbed from the PC's qualifying as a total surprise. 

It was no secret backbencher Blair Yakimoski was in a tough fight in Transcona to retain, and in swing seat St. Vital, Jamie Moses was a persisent presence in the riding and decisively avenged his 2016 loss to Colleen Mayer. 

In my view, redistribution made St. James a tough but expected lost seat for the PC's.  If anything, the NDP failure to win the newly created McPhillips constituency in the north end of the city, where the Seven Oaks Hospital is located, was more surprising, as PC MLA Shannon Martin parachuted in and eeked out a return to the Legislature.

The prospects for the other two opposition parties dimmed greatly despite earlier polling which demonstrated the very definition of "parking their vote". After dislodging the volatile Rana Bokhari as Liberal leader, Dougald Lamont didn't move the dial beyond a .08% increase in electoral support in a disappointing result. He, Dr. Jon Gerrard in River Heights, and Cindy Lamoureaux (relocated to Tyndal Park), return to Broadway but the Libs fell short of official Party status.

Premier Pallister assured Audrey Gordon her
slim margin of victory in Southdale didn't bother him

Lamont waffled to the left with scads of climate change pronouncements trying to stem leakage to the Green Party, and made spending promises that even made socialists blush. In the process attracted only 5005 more votes and failed to hold a 4th seat and retain party status. 
The scant economic policy didn't chip into Tory support, and the ground game simply didn't materialize. I suspect the Trudeau government's scandals made even considering a checkmark beside a candidate labeled Liberal a no-go for more than a few voters. 

As for the Manitoba Green Party, support for leader James Beddome in Fort Rouge was tripled by Kinew, and the Party failed to close a 392 vote gap in Wolseley and saw it grow to 917, and out of reach, for David Nickarz. The Green wave is D-O-A here, and in his speech Kinew already promoted that progressive left is spelled N-D-P in this province. It's too bad because voters need more candidates with more new ideas, not less.

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Premier Pallister was working the room sharing the thrill of victory around 11 PM and when he noticed me, laughingly remarking how after all these years (we first met in 1993) "we're getting better with age!" 

"Mazel Tov! Hey, I want to get a 30 minute interview with you sometime." Immediately I got the infamous Pallister steely glare. "No." I figured he was joking so I said, "OK, 20 minutes then!"

"No. You, and Bartley Kives," he said. 

Instantly he burst out laughing at the look on my face, reached down, grabbed and shook my hand some more and said "AWWWW I'm just joshing with you, of course we can!"

He conceded after the win that the biggest take-away is that his government needs to do a better job of listening, and I will hold them to that. There are a number of issues that I covered during the election that may not matter to MSM, but do to my audience.

I would ask Premier Pallister about construction contract corruption strangling Manitoba-based trades, and why accountability for the engineering profession has deteriorated under the revised Act to the point they act like a protection racket. And more:

* Will he curtail the WRHA continuing to pump out 2 million "harm reduction" needles for meth addicts with no responsibility to deal with the impact of discarded used rigs in the community? What about the meth detox unit proposal of Morberg House that has so much support from politicians of all stripes, including two members of his own caucus?

* Will loopholes in the candidate disclosure law (ie Garnishment Orders, and by the way the list is up to 4 NDP'ers now) be closed? 

* And not that it was an election issue, but the antique City of Winnipeg Act is a problem every week at City Hall - if there's changes to come, your voice needs to be heard.

Those are on the kitchen table, so to speak, of my audience.
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Reyes Working New Riding To Keep Legislature Seat; Weekend Roundup Of Pronouncements

Coming from a military and small business background, Jon Reyes says he's used to putting in the hard work and long hours needed in seeking re-election to the Manitoba Legislature, as the Progressive Conservative candidate in Waverley. 

I caught up to Reyes at the opening of his campaign office and in this clip, see his explanation about the make-up of the new riding and how his family experience as immigrants helps him understand the challenges that new Canadians in his riding are dealing with. 

Among election announcements this weekend:

- Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont addressed economic issues as part of a 10 year strategic infrastructure plan "to prioritize urgent and high-return-on-investment infrastructure projects. The party promised to invest on average $1.6-billion per year for ten years. 

"This $16 billion investment would see a return of almost $21 billion to Manitoba during that time frame." 

Included will be a study of rail relocation / rationalization for the City of Winnipeg, and costs related to linking it with CentrePort, as well as the possibility of creating a commuter / light rail system on the vacated tracks. The study should cost an estimated $3-million. 

Seeking to expand it's presence in the Assembly beyond the Party status minimum of 4 seats, the Liberals "will also apply previously announced “buy local” and local procurement policies to the projects and ensure there is a level playing field so local companies can apply."

- The New Democratic Party attacked PC proposals that focused largely on women's health issues and services, claiming that Premier Brian Pallister "Refused to let the Health Minister answer questions about women’s reproductive health for three years" while closing programs for lactating mothers, mature women, and cutting funding to Cancer Care Manitoba

- Reye's campaign office roommate Sarah Guillemard said a re-elected PC government "will invest $3.4 million per year to implement initiatives that help all Manitobans". 

The promises include enhanced mental health and specialized trauma counselling, establishing a six seat Bachelor of Midwifery program at the University of  Manitoba, and reducing wait times "for Manitobans seeking treatment for eating disorders, including anorexia, bulimia and binge-eating."

- Not in the realm of an announcement, but a first-time Green Party candidate messaged me and related the following: 

"You know what's a very interesting thing ... hearing disaffected conservative voters tell me they're looking for options and voting Green this year." 

Is Green going to be the new "parked my vote" space in 2019?

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I have more unique breaking news coming up from the Manitoba election

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Last week we made waves with reports about construction trade contract corruption squeezing Manitoba-based operations.

We are also bringing exclusive news about the growing momentum to get the next government to put the vacated care facility at 800 Adele back on the agenda to serve Manitobans as a meth detox and education hub.

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Manitoba Leaders Jockey For Health Care Voters; Seven Oaks ER Closure Not So Heated, Says Tory Hopeful

With a bit of a target on his back, Liberal leader Dougald Lamont matched the governing PC's and opposition NDP in holding a morning press announcement Thursday in the sunny beauty of summery St. Boniface. 

After both parties launched hospital/health care promises in front of his riding's hospital on Wednesday, Lamont countered the next day with some coherent policy ideas to improve mental health services in the province. 

The groundwork has been laid over the past 10 years or so by Dr. Jon Gerrard when he was leader, and Lamont smartly took up the cause. 

One of the notable aspects is to include child (under 18) mental health assessment costs to flag and treat behavioral and learning disabilities as a listed service under Medicare. The 2-3 year wait time for kids to get evaluated in unacceptable and most often puts kids behind their peers permanently. Just ask any school librarian in rural and remote Manitoba, if there are any still being funded. 

Lamont also pledged an improved "access to psychological therapist program", based on a UK model. These are both great ideas, notwithstanding costs, staffing, and the other input factors. Here's the video clip:

The NDP started kicking at Lamont's door by holding the first presser in the riding this week, in LaVerendrye Park, across Tache St. from St Bonifice Hospital. But the pitch handed leader Wab Kinew by the orange braintrust was far beneath the weightier expectations of voters and pundits when it comes to the subject of health care priorities. 

Relieving the cost of parking near and at hospitals - a genuine issue in Winnipeg - is still only a bantamweight problem in the big picture and came off as an underwhelming use of the media's attention, especially with Premier Brian Pallister scheduled for the same park withi the hour. The cost of parking, and overtime tickets, when families are stressed out would be a decent part of package of "Five Ways The NDP Will Halt You Being Ripped Off", and the NDP should have found some other gouging issues of fees or permits or fines to champion with it. 

At 10 AM that same day, the Blue Crew set up a podium for Pallister to go big, with a $2B over 4 years spending program highlighted by a new ER for the highly stressed St. Boniface Hospital. 

New personal care home beds, improved diagnostic testing equipment, and more generous grants to hospitals and doctor billings was also on the menu. The media probed how much of the pledge was truly new provincial money compared to incoming increases in federal health care dollars, but Pallister refuted the theory, claiming the feds percentage was based on them having lowering the base amount in the first place, so they were just playing catch-up at a laggardly pace. 

Last weekend, I dropped by the opening of a PC campaign office for a parachute candidate in the new riding of McPhillips, trying to hold onto a seat with the governing Conservatives. 

Shannon Martin has migrated his campaigning machine from Morris to a unique hybrid riding with a chunk of city (mostly Garden City) and an exurban northern half, with common priorities for both of trust and taxation. 

The recent closure of the ER at the Seven Oaks Hospital has been controversial but Martin says that at the doorstep, while "the change has come up ... once you direct them the website, understanding urgent vs emergency ... (we're) ensuring the wait lists have been dealt with", allowing the "significant transition has not been without its stress", before taking a shot at the contradictory positions of Kinew and his erstwhile candidate in Fort Garry, Mark Wasyliw, about the conversion of the ER at the Victoria Hospital. Here's the video: 

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